Spanish politics is at a crossroads and I can't see any single party winning an overall majority in the local elections in the Balearics in May or the general elections in April. The Partido Popular have won overall majorities in Madrid and in Palma in the past, but the image of the party has been tarnished by a series of political corruption cases and now they have to search for bedfellows if they want to form a government. The PP was the party of the right but now they have been joined by Ciudadanos and Vox. Many commentators see these three parties ruling both the Balearics and Spain as a whole, in a coaliation modelled on the one which already governs in Andalusia.

On the left there is the PSOE , which is expected to win the general election but without a majority, and Podemos, which is still a major force in Spanish politics. But it is Ciudadanos which is the kingmaker. There is a possibility that they might pact with PSOE and form a coalition government in Madrid but this is rather unlikely after the outcome of the elections in Andalusia. The right will stay with the right and the left with the left. Vox, who have been labelled as far right, are gaining ground with their anti-immigration message and their Spain First battle cry.

Spanish politics was already complicated and then Catalonia illegally declared independence. All the mainstream parties are opposed to giving Catalonia a referendum on independence but if a right-wing coalition forms the government in Madrid then the Catalans can face an uphill struggle.