Formentor beach is one of the 185 predicted to disappear. | Gabriel Alomar

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Caló des Moro in Santanyi, where a protest against beach overcrowding was staged some weeks ago, has become synonymous with tourist saturation. But if a study by the Balearic Oceanographic Centre is correct, the overcrowding will cease because the beach will disappear. And it won't be the only beach that goes. Guests at the new, ultra-luxury Hotel Formentor had better make the most of the beach while they can, as this beach and Caló des Moro are two among an estimated 185 in the Balearics that will cease to be by the end of the century.

There are 870 beaches in all, so just over 20% are threatened unless very strong measures are adopted at a global level to stop pollution and so reduce the effects of climate change.

Biel Jordá, a researcher at the Balearic Oceanographic Centre, says that measures already in force are not enough. Emissions are being reduced, but not quickly enough. The effects are inevitable, but taking measures will reduce the impacts.

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The other 685 beaches will be reduced. In many cases, significantly; on average it is estimated that it will be by a half. Jordá explains that different studies published worldwide indicate that by the end of the century the sea will have risen between 50 and 60 centimetres in the Mediterranean and the near Atlantic. "This will have a very big impact on the Balearic Islands. We are used to only very small variations in the tides, so the beaches suffer insignificant variations."

The rise in sea level is accelerating more and more - by ten centimetres over the past 30 years. He adds that we are already noticing the effects of climate change but that these will become increasingly evident.

The study by the Balearic Oceanographic Centre is unlike previous ones in that there is a detailed projection for the islands, taking into account the specific characteristics of each beach. "This is something that has never been done before," Jordá points out. Other global studies use generic and low-resolution information about the coast, which leads to results that can be very misleading when looking at the details. This study takes into account the multiple variables.