THE Spanish general election this weekend looks to be such a forgone conclusion that even the man tipped for victory has said that he is convinced that they are going to win! Mariano Rajoy of the Partido Popular told an election rally that he was sure of victory. Now, you can see why he is confident because the opinion polls give him a double digit lead but before he starts celebrating too much perhaps he should remember John Major and the British election in 1992.
The Labour Party under Neil Kinnock was so convinced that they were going to win that they even produced victory mugs weeks before the election actually took place! Rather silly because Major triumphed with an overall majority. There is always a danger of declaring victory before all the results are in, just ask Neil Kinnock! Rajoy can be confident of victory because most Spaniards blame the now ruling socialists for most of the country´s ills.
But Rajoy has said that he going to introduce major cuts in an effort to try and balance the books in Spain. Only, pensions, education and health are going to escape the big budget reductions which he is planning. This in some ways will frighten voters. Rajoy will win but he has got to win by a landslide if he wants to push through his ambitious spending curbs. The last thing he needs is for the Partido Popular to have to form a coalition government because they failed to gain an overall majority at the elections.