Sun sets on the left and rises on an uncertain right

Francina Armengol of PSOE on election night

Resignation on Francina Armengol's face | Photo: Teresa Ayuga

Andrew EdePalma29/05/2023 08:59

Desire for change, a Marga Prohens fear and prohibition sloganising, a thumbs-down to Pedro Sánchez and his Spanish government with Podemos, a switch of allegiance from one political extreme to another ... . Some of all of these, the explanations less immediately relevant than the realities of a cloudy morning in Mallorca, the sun having set on the left but uncertain of a rise on the right. The numbers stack up, but a Prohens prophesy of a PP majority - which was never going to be the case - has not come true. The truth of the political map is that she will have to find some accord with Vox. She will have to find? Only by steering from Madrid. Ditto for Jorge Campos and Vox. It is conceivable that the PP could govern in minority with a Vox support for investiture (the vote in Formentera gives the PP 26 seats against a 25 for all the left parties), but Campos will surely seek his pound of flesh.

The polls proved to be inaccurate in that they had underplayed the PP's revival and had overestimated a Unidas Podemos endurance. The closeness of the call was not close, the combination on the right having passed the Balearic parliament majority of 30 with relative ease. Nine seats gained by the PP rather than the probable six that the most optimistic polls had suggested. Just one seat for Podemos, a loss of five. The polls hadn't predicted this decimation, the more straightforward annihilation - that of Ciudadanos (from five to zero) - having been known for months (years). The centre of Balearic politics has disappeared, the regionalist El Pi having accompanied the liberal Cs in their flight to parliamentary oblivion.

Francina Armengol's PSOE more or less held up - a loss of one seat to 18, and bearing in mind that in 2015 they only won 14 seats - and Més stayed as they were on four. The Més candidate for president, Lluís Apesteguia, accepted that it was "undeniable" that the party had failed to achieve its purposes, one of which was "to continue with a progressive majority". This may have been so, but a more radical Més under Apesteguia had been equivocal as to participation in a progressive government going forward, while it has failed to advance and now faces a parliament where Vox have amassed twice as many seats as they have. I predict a raucous parliament. Prohens, if the PP do reach an acceptable arrangement with Vox, may well find herself having to try and control an emboldened Campos.

Catalan, always Catalan, will form a battleground renewed. But otherwise, Prohens inherits an economy in good shape and with virtual full employment. If elections are supposed to be won or lost on economic management, then 2023 does rather dispute this. The PP will therefore take over from a position of economic well-being, their principal challenges being those of a general well-being, with decent housing topping the list.

One hopes for some good grace on all sides; I fear that it may be in limited supply.