THE preliminary evaluation report on the impact of climate change in Spain predicts a rise in average temperature of up to four degrees for the Balearics. This is the result of an investigation by a large team from various backgrounds, together with many scientists and other experts. The evaluation report establishes two possible climate change scenarios for Spain during the 21st century. One is more pessimistic and one more optimistic (according to the levels of emissions of greenhouse gasses). In the first period, between 2010 and 2040, the more optimistic prediction is that the average temperature for all four seasons will rise by one degree centigrade in the Balearics. In the more pessimistic prediction the rise will be two degrees in Summer and Autumn. For the period 2040-2070 in the islands, the more optimistic scenario is that the average rise in temperature would be two degrees for all seasons. However, in the pessimistic scenario the average rise would be three degrees in Summer.
Between 2070 and 2100, the more optimistic scenario for the islands predicts a rise of two degrees in Winter and Spring, and three degrees in Summer and Autumn. The more pessimistic scenario predicts an increment of three degrees in Winter and Spring, and four degrees in Summer and Autumn. However, taking into account the whole of Spain, the Balearics will not have the greatest rise in temperatures. In the pessimistic scenario, temperatures could rise by seven degrees in almost all of the Peninsula. Nevertheless, climate change is not confined to rising temperatures and, as it is a worldwide phenomenon, the Balearic region could see itself seriously affected by the general level of climate change worldwide. Changes in rainfall will be minimal compared with other regions. Between 2010-2040 and 2040-2070 the variation will be limited to a rise of 0.5 millimetres per day in Autumn, the Balearic rainy season. However, by the end of the century there could be a reduction of 0.5 millimetres in daily rainfall in Spring and Summer, accentuating the dryness and perhaps causing droughts in the Mediterranean during Summer.
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