My firm prediction is that the likely outcome to making predictions is the predictions will be wrong.

27-12-2014

By Hugh Ash

In his palatial City office in London’s Canary Wharf, my friend – chief economist of a major, global financial institution – sits behind a desk so gargantuan it could  solve the issue of Heathrow’s third runway.
 Chewing the fat with him one day at the height of the 2008 banking meltdown, I asked this master of the universe when he thought the crisis would end.
 Instead of answering, he just shrugged, then nodded towards an ornate plinth in the corner of his mini fiefdom, on which was mounted a soccer-sized crystal ball.
 ‘Take a dekko inside that,’ said my friend eventually. ‘You’ve a better chance of finding the answer in there than from me.’
 I left, shaking my head and musing on the folly of making predictions.
 This thought was rekindled last week, when I read an apologia from a financial whizkid, who wrote, ‘No-one expected this sudden, sharp drop in crude oil prices.’
 His buzzword was ‘sudden’. Because, if the anointed experts had seen it coming, there would have been no shock.
 In fact, looking back, the only person in my experience to make an accurate prediction was Madam Petrulengo, the palmist on Blackpool prom, who forecast I’d get a ticket on my car parked outside on a double yellow line. She was right; I did.
 So, generally, it’s been my firm prediction that the likely outcome to making predictions is the predictions will be wrong. And, so far, my record has been 100% accurate.
 Nonetheless, since it’s that time of year, worst luck, when my arm is twisted into risking a spot of soothsaying, here goes…and heaven help us if I’m right.
 Firstly, the nightmarish potboiler that’s a story of purblind Eurozone politicians will rumble on, with no consensus to ease the plight of the EU’s jobless, homeless and hopeless. Shovels will be issued to Euro commissioners, so they can dig themselves into bigger holes.
 Beyond-the-barmy, Right-wing parties – like France’s National Front, Hungary’s Jobbick and Greece’s Golden Dawn – will democratically vote to end democracy, while Brussels Europrats will take 2015 off and nobody will notice any difference.
 Vladimir Putin will order Russians to bathe in oil, because – at $60 a barrel and sliding – it’ll be cheaper than water. The population of Moscow, barring oligarchs who can afford to import Evian by the tankerload, will assume a brackish, oleaginous glow, so they’ll be light-reflective. This will reduce the number of pedestrians struck down by drunk drivers at night, thus hailed as a health and safety success by the Kremlin.
 Americans will finally realise President Obama is actually a hologram, since he’s been as effective as one for the last half-dozen years. During 2015, he’ll gradually evaporate like the Cheshire Cat in Alice In Wonderland, with only a grin left behind.
 Hillary Clinton will declare her intention to run as Democratic Party candidate for the White House and she’ll face Jeb Bush, brother of G Dubya and son of HW, who’ll fly the flag of the Republican cause.
 US geneticists will then discover only members of presidential dynasties possess that unique strand of DNA – the two-faced, lie-through-the-teeth, back-stab helix – to be leaders, so there’ll be a nationwide hunt for descendants of Richard Nixon to stand in future hustings. North Korean internet hackers will blackmail Hollywood’s movie moguls into relocating their studios to Pyongyang and Won Hung Lo – or whatever the Young Supreme Leader is called – will be the next James Bond, Batman and Wonder Woman, a role for which he’ll award himself an Oscar.
 A bloke called Nigel will decide who wins next May’s UK General Election.
 No, not that Nigel – the UKIP Farage one – but Nigel Dodds, whom nobody outside Northern Ireland (and few inside it for that matter) has ever heard of.
 But with an expected mish-mash outcome to the result, with neither of the major parties winning a majority, the minor cast members will be crucial players in deciding who rules. In short, reprising 2010, the tail will wag the dog.
 Which is where Doddsy comes in. Tipped to replace Peter Robinson as leader of the Democratic Ulster Unionists (DUP) – the bunch invented by the late Reverend Ian Paisley, who brought the fire and brimstone of religion to bear on politics – Nige could even emerge as Deputy Prime Minister, depending on which way he throws the dice of his eight MPs.
 After much cogitation, as a huge fan of Wallace & Gromit, he will come out in favour of Ed Miliband for Prime Minister, since the Labour leader is a doppelganger for Wallace and Wensleydale is also the DUP’s favourite cheese.
 The Tories will sack David Cameron, merge with UKIP to become the Conservative, Unionist and UK Independence Party and elect Boris Johnson as leader, who’ll make Nigel – the Farage one – Shadow Foreign Secretary.
 Nick Clegg will quit as head honcho of the Liberal Democrats; their core voters will switch to the Greens, who’ll demand a ban on all forms of petrol-powered transport, resulting in an influx of Hong Kong rickshaw pullers, in anticipation they will eventually replace London’s Routemaster buses.
 In the Middle East, the Saudis will wreck the Iranian economy by driving down the price of oil to a bucket of camel dung a barrel and do a back-channel deal with Israel to buy the Matzoball Bomb – a doomsday weapon with a difference, since all infected by its fallout turn Jewish.
 It will first be tested on the headbanging jihadi rabble of IS/ISIL, thorns by any other name in the side of humanity, who will – en masse – discard their AK47s to become rabbinical students.
 Pope Francis will be awarded the Nobel Peace prize for his role in patching up the 45-year US-Cuba standoff; the Vatican will be given the worldwide concession to flog Havana cigars.
 Finally, the space probe, Cassini, will discover huge gold and diamond deposits on Saturn; FIFA will announce the 2026 World Cup will be held there.
 So those are my forecasts for next year. But they’ll be wrong on all counts, because I learnt long ago there was no future in making predictions.

To read more of Hugh Ash’s comments, follow his online blog – Views From The Mallorca Pier – at hughash.wordpress.com

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