By Jason Moore

Opinion polls, can they be believed? The other day we had a story on our front page we suggested that the Conservatives were six points clear of Labour in one poll and another said that they were three points behind! Now, while it is generally known that the bookies always get it right the pollsters do not have such a great track record. The Scottish independence vote, was neck and neck, according to the pollsters and then the “No” vote won comfortably by 10 percent. But it was former Prime Minister John Major who really put egg on the face of pollsters back in 1993 when he triumphed in the general with an overall majority while polls had been pointing to a Labour victory. I think that there are some points which have to be taken into account. Some people are reluctant to talk about their politics and may give a wrong answer just to get pollsters off the scent. I remember in the 1980s few people admitted that they voted for Margaret Thatcher even though she won three elections! This British election is neck and neck, or so everyone says but the pollsters have been wrong before. This will be the general election of the European Union and Prime Minister David Cameron´s proposed referendum on Britain´s membership of the European Union and of course the economy. It is a big election and perhaps the polls are not giving a fair account of the overall picture. I think it will be close but not that close and there will be an overall winner.

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