Packed beaches for now in Majorca at any rate.

17-07-2016Jaume Morey

Credit ratings agency Moody’s has warned that Spain will be among the countries most affected by the UK’s departure from the European Union, due to the potential impact on the revenue it receives from tourists from UK tourists.

"The direct impact of Brexit will be limited for most EU Member States, although the effect on Ireland, Belgium, Spain and Cyprus could be more serious," according to a note from Moody’s.

"Ireland is undoubtedly the country most exposed by the UK’s departure from the EU. Other countries exposed to the impact of Brexit are Belgium, because of its trade links with the United Kingdom, as well as Spain and Cyprus which benefit from Mediterranean tourism," the agency added.

Analysts from the US agency have indicated that countries which may experience the biggest reduction in the number of UK tourists are those with "the highest debt levels and the highest funding requirements for 2016".

"Northern EU states with solid fiscal parameters, such as Germany, the Netherlands and Sweden, are best positioned to withstand any pressure," says Moody’s. These countries could nevertheless end up paying a greater contribution to the EU budget as a result of Brexit.

With regard to the possibility that some corporations and financial services might move from London to the continent, the agency believes that any gain from relocations will be small and gradual. Analysts point out that many European companies have important manufacturing, sales and research operations in the UK, so the depreciation of the pound could have a negative impact on their profits in euros.

While Moody's may see a complicated economic future for Spain, and therefore the Balearics, because of Brexit, the view is rather different locally. BBVA bank, for example, has issued its revised growth forecast for the Balearics. This forecast was previously lower than the regional government's 4% for this year, but with incorporating the impact of Brexit, the bank believes there will be 3.2% growth this year and 3.3% in 2017. As to the effect on tourism, BBVA believes that any reduction in UK visitors will be compensated for by tourists from other countries, certainly as long as instability continues in competitor Mediterranean destinations.

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Mike / Hace over 5 years

It doesn't matter where it is. Wherever the Brits tend to colonise it eventually becomes a run-down area. Start with the whole of the coastline from Estapona to Marbella. Hideous.

+4-

Simon Tow / Hace over 5 years

Where´s that, Southern Argentina ?

+-3-

Wolfgang / Hace over 5 years

Where I live 95% of houses are owned by Germans, Spanish and other non Brits. It wont affect the better urbanisations, just the rather run down ones that the Brits tend to colonise!

+4-

Mike / Hace over 5 years

The Russians are coming!

+3-

Simon Tow / Hace over 5 years

And more importantly, the absurdly high stamp duties, which go from 8% up to 11%.

+3-

holidaymaker / Hace over 5 years

The bottom will fall out of the property market again if all the brits start offloading their properties and as you say Steve who is going to buy? This will also cause concern to Spanish property owners as their property value will drop. The tourists will drop off so what the tax man gains in capital gains they will loose in less tax paid by businesses as they will have a lower turn over.

+1-

Simon Tow / Hace over 5 years

In that case, who is going to do the buying ?

+1-

Mike / Hace over 5 years

Without any certainty on residency for current EU nationals (either in the UK or Spain) the economic fallout will be substantial. Moreover, it also presents short-term opportunities for some.

We are already starting to see Brits putting their properties on the market to repatriate their funds back to the UK. The Euro price, even after a fire-sale discount, will still buy more GBP pounds than last year.

However, the Hacienda is already salivating at all that Capital Gains Tax the next three or four years will bring on those sales.

+3-