03-11-2018

An opinion poll by the Balearic Institute of Social Studies confirms the fragmented nature of support for political parties as the elections draw nearer.

Based on the poll's findings, the current government "pact" would not be able to gain a majority in the Balearic parliament (thirty of the 59 seats). PSOE, Podemos and Més all show losses compared with the results in 2015 - PSOE by up to two seats (down to twelve), Podemos by up to two (down to eight) and Més by up to four (down to five). According to the poll, the maximum number of seats the pact could hope for plus one from Gent per Formentera would be 28.

For the Partido Popular, the poll makes bad reading. The calculation would be the loss of three seats (down to seventeen). The party which has made the most gains - and dramatically so - is Ciudadanos. The poll suggests that it would win eight more seats than in 2015, taking it up to ten.

The possibility of a right/centre-right coalition has been talked about for some time. Such a pact, it has become evident, would be the only way that the PP could return to power. The C's and the PP often ally in presenting a united opposition in parliament and in other institutions, but they would be short of a majority. In the circumstances, the party which may find itself in the role of kingmaker is El Pi. The poll suggests it would gain one more seat. With its four, there would be a majority for a coalition with the PP and the C's.

The poll does not give an endorsement of the government's performance since 2015. There is a 38% approval, and a slightly lower approval (36%) for President Armengol. As for other political leaders, the PP's Biel Company gets 4.6 out of ten. This is the highest compared with Jaume Font of El Pi, Xavier Pericay (C's), Miquel Ensenyat of Més and Alberto Jarabo of Podemos. The lowest approval rating - 3.1 - is reserved for Jarabo.