The Exceltur alliance for tourism excellence calculates that the crisis will lead to a 40.8% decrease in Balearics tourism GDP this year. This equates to 6,076 million euros. At national level, the impact is predicted to be 54,733 million euros, a loss of 32.4% tourism GDP. This figure includes 15,595 million euros of indirect tourism activity, e.g. that of suppliers.
The calculations are based on studies by various institutions and on an anticipation that current restrictions will apply until the end of May. After this, it is expected that it will take up to four weeks before people start deciding to travel in any number, with the main mode of travel being by car rather than by shared transport, e.g. planes. The loss of tourism GDP in the Balearics, Exceltur believes, will be the highest in Spain. For Catalonia the loss is put at 34%. Then come Valencia (33.6%), Andalusia (32.5%), Madrid (27.9%) and the Canaries (25.9%).
The alliance says that tourism company turnover is now practically zero, with little prospect of recovery over the next two to three months. The tourism sector, Exceltur notes, "is working without ceasing" in order to ensure business continuity while also providing help by making hotels available and transporting material.
Exceltur has proposed its own list of measures that it would like the Spanish government to adopt. These include the postponement of the payment of social security contributions and all types of tax related to the first and second quarters of the year. A further measure would be to facilitate liquidity by increasing lines of credit provided by the state and regional governments from 20,000 million euros to 200,000 million.
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And no-one has yet suggested scrapping the tourist tax...
If the assumption is that people will use ground transport to get to a holiday destination after the crisis then the Balearics are, to put it mildly, stuffed. I'm sure there will be flights and the airlines will work out a way of improving social distancing. The airports too. But it's the death knell of mass tourism, so the Mallorca Tourist Board et al need to get cracking on their new reality tourism sustainability model that they've long been spouting off about. "Same as, same as" won't cut it any longer.