R0 is the number of people to whom an individual can pass a virus. If the number of effective reproductions is greater than 1, the disease will continue to spread and if it is less, it will disappear.
The basic reproductive number of the Balearics is now at 1.61, the same level as March 26.
There is an epidemiological explanation, but a huge effort will be needed to persuade the Ministry of Health to take that into account and allow the Balearic Islands to move to Phase 3.
"The system of notifying the Ministry Health of Covid-19 cases was changed on May 11 and now includes people who are asymptomatic," explains Epidemiologist Jaume Jiménez.
Now that Primary Care has begun to diagnose and count mild cases, the number of new infections recorded daily has increased and that and other issues will be take into account by the Ministry of Health for the change to Phase 3.
Despite the good evolution of the pandemic, the Balearic Islands are not best placed. The system of notifications included patients that other communities had already accounted for, which distorted the figures. The cumulative incidence of cases diagnosed per 10,000 inhabitants in the last 14 days is now 10.79. Ten Autonomous Communities have presented better data than the Balearic Islands.
"We did not count those who were asymptomatic before May 11 and we do more PCR tests now, hence the difference in numbers," adds Jimenez, who claims that despite the new cases, the incidence is not higher.
"We are in communication with the Ministry of Health to make them aware of this so that it is not taken into account, because it is a false increase," he said.
Jaume Jiménez also claimed that "a community with several provinces is not the same as an archipelago", and emphasised that the problem of virus transmission would only be in Majorca, because "Minorca has zero contagion and Ibiza and Formentera are almost at zero.”
New infections and fatalities
There are currently 213 active coronavirus infections in the Balearic Islands, making 2,057 since the pandemic began.
On Wednesday, 110 patients were still in hospital and 26 are still in serious condition in the ICU. There was one fatality in the Balearic Islands, taking the total to 224.
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Hardly surprising since if going by the daily figures, of which I have kept a daily record, the numbers do not balance, and after yesterday when there were reported 14 deaths that were duplicated, and the sudden drop of cases in ICU, it looks to be a real muddle.