An opinion poll by the Balearic Institute of Social Studies suggests that were an election to be held now, the main opposition Partido Popular would win between 18 and 20 seats in the Balearic parliament - there are 59 seats in all.
Either 18 or 20 would be an improvement on the 2019 election, when the PP won 16 seats. But 20 would be the same as the 2015 election, the PP under José Ramón Bauzá having had a majority of 35 at the 2011 election.
According to the poll, Vox, further to the right than the PP, would win four to five seats; they currently have three. Ciudadanos and El Pi, both more of the centre, would win four to five and two to three seats respectively; the Cs have five at present and the regionalist El Pi have three.
Of the left, Francina Armengol's PSOE would be down from 19 seats to 16 or 17. Podemos would get five to six seats (they currently have six), while the Més nationalists in Mallorca would stay on four seats. Més in Minorca would keep their two seats and Gent per Formentera (GxF) their one.
On the basis of the poll, the formation of a government coalition would be inconclusive either way, although the existing government pact of PSOE, Podemos and Més Mallorca might just scrape a presidential investiture with the aid of Més Minorca and GxF. For the right and the centre, there would be sufficient seats for a majority if all parties won the maximum number as indicated by the poll, but there would be a big "if", especially with regard to any alliance involving Vox where the Cs and El Pi are concerned.
The poll has been conducted ahead of the confirmation of Marga Prohens as the new leader of the PP; this will be at a party congress later this month. Prohens is viewed as a stronger personality and challenger to Francina Armengol than the departing Biel Company. She may make a difference between now and the election in May 2023, but even so, the PP still have a great deal of ground to make up; the 2015 election was a disaster for them.
For Armengol, the poll isn't great news, while she and PSOE have had their differences with their pact partners, Més Mallorca especially. Nevertheless, the poll doesn't point to any decisive shift in political sentiment, and PSOE will be hoping that a post-pandemic recovery will boost their fortunes come May 2023.