Carmen Planas of the Confederation of Balearic Business Associations says that despite positive employment figures for September, there are "worrying forecasts" for the autumn and "the first signs of a slowdown".
The president of the main employers organisation in the Balearics points to the fact that economic activity has yet to fully return to pre-pandemic levels - it is minus seven per cent of what it was in 2019 - while she notes that the Balearic government has again revised the 2023 growth forecast downwards, this time by six tenths.
Figures released on Tuesday showed a 25.2% decrease in September unemployment compared with last year - the highest year-on-year drop in the country. There were 36,854 unemployed, giving an unemployment rate, according to the government, that can be classified as full employment. There was a three per cent rise in unemployment compared with August, but this was to have been expected in seasonal terms.
Minister for the economic model, tourism and employment, Iago Negueruela, stressed on Tuesday that "we have had the best September in our history and that means that there has been no slowdown". "The data we are seeing confirm that there will be a good October and hopefully November will be as well."
Negueruela accepted that forecasts must be treated "with caution" due to uncertainty at an international level, but he insisted that predictions of a slowdown have more to do with "the salary debate" than with the current economic reality.
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I'd certainly expect some sort of slow down. Two elephants in the room: 1. Summer is over. Never in the history of Mallorca has there been summer tourism levels sustained after October. It always slows down. The appearance, based on pre-bookings, is that winter will be a bit less pessimistic this year. But not heaving. It never has been. 2. There's all kinds of risks in the global economy. I need not explain further. Really, it can only mean a slowdown. Globally. The question is "how bad"? Mallorca has never been the best or worst survivor of economic shocks. I suspect this will be no different.