Report argues that annual immigration to the Balearics needs to be cut sharply

A report from this organisation - 'Population Growth in the Balearic Islands: Evolution and Challenges' -maintains that if the current trend continues, with population growth strongly driven by immigration, the population by 2040 will be around 1.5 million. At the start of this year, the INE gave a total population figure of 1,244,394.

In order to achieve what the Circle describes as "steady growth", the study argues that the average annual influx of immigrants needs to be cut to around a quarter of the current level - some 4,000 per annum. It estimates that the number of homes needed within 15 years will be between 586,400 and 723,000*. This calculation takes account of a projection for the average household size, down from 2.5 at present to 2.32 by 2040.

An analysis for Spain as a whole indicates that to achieve this same objective, a migratory balance - the difference between immigrants and emigrants - should be divided by two. Therefore, the migratory pressure on the islands is much greater. Projections point to an increase in households that "translates into enormous pressure on an already densely populated territory where space for creating new housing is very limited".

The report concludes that the Balearics are experiencing "very intense, sustained, and persistent" population growth, placing it at the top of the Spanish national scale in this regard. This is growth that "will have serious repercussions on health, education, social and housing issues, as well as on energy consumption, waste production and the need for water resources".

All of this paints "a worrying picture" for a region already severely constrained in terms of resource supply by its insularity, "a permanent structural disadvantage recognised by the European Parliament".

* It might be pointed out that the INE's Housing Census from 2021 reported a total of 652,123 dwellings in the Balearics.