Two years have elapsed since the last election in the Balearics, and there are two years to go until the next election.
A mid-term survey by the Balearic Institute of Social Studies offers some encouragement to the Partido Popular, the party of government but with a minority. The survey gives the PP 28 seats in the Balearic Parliament, three more than in 2023. The PP's share of the vote is up to 38.6% compared with 35.8% in 2023.
There are 59 seats, so the poll indicates the PP would be two short of a majority of 30. The PP are at present reliant on the support of Vox, whose share of the vote - according to the survey - is up to 14.5% from 13.9% but with seven seats rather than the current eight.
The poll clearly suggests the right will hold onto power in 2027. The PP will hope to be able to achieve a majority in 2027, their policymaking having been influenced by Vox demands. The concessions in order to finally approve the 2025 budget have been indicative of this.
For the left, the survey will be concerning. PSOE's share of the vote is down from 26.5% to 25.4% and with 17 seats, one fewer than at present. The poll indicates that Podemos (or Sumar) would disappear from parliament. The econationalists Més in Mallorca and Menorca hold firm with four and two seats respectively. The one other seat, the poll suggests, would be for GxF-PSOE in Formentera, the solitary gain for the left.
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As a resident here I follow stuff as closely as I dare. With politics? It is so confusing, contradictory and often outlandishly immature that I’ve given up. I’d get more sense out of 5 year olds in playground.