The latest travel restrictions have made the forecast even worse. | Aina Ginard


The Exceltur alliance for tourism excellence has revised its forecast for losses to be incurred by Spain's tourism industry. The previous forecast for 2020 was 83,134 million euros. It is now 98,753 million and reflects the impact of UK and German travel restrictions.

Given falling demand and the possible early end to the season, Exceltur argues that the tourism industry, facing a "bleak" situation, needs an "urgent and potent non-refundable aid plan".

Exceltur highlights the fact that the decrease in tourism activity will account for more than half of the anticipated 15.1% fall in the entire Spanish economy in 2020. In this regard, the alliance points to a Bank of Spain estimate. Moreover, there will be a reduction of 52,862 million euros in terms of foreign exchange income in 2020.

For the third quarter, Exceltur estimates a loss of 36,638 million euros, while for the fourth quarter the forecast is 18,655 million euros. These will be added to the 43,460 millions which had accumulated by end-June.

These "devastating" results show that the tourism industry has been the "most damaged" of all industries in the Spanish economy. The plan that it is advocating to rescue viable companies requires an extension of ERTE until Easter 2021 and without a reduction in social security discounts. It also needs Spanish government and Brussels funding to ensure business and employment survival until at least next spring.

Exceltur is also advocating a more coordinated approach to monitoring and controlling the pandemic, with a common regulatory framework at national level and more positive and coordinated communications in order to avoid misleading messages and unfounded alarmism. Brussels, the alliance believes, should unify coronavirus criteria for regulating the movement of people and the flow of tourists throughout the European Union. These should involve obligatory tests at origin and destination in order to minimise risks.