Francina Armengol's PSOE are the big losers, according to the poll.

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The latest opinion poll by the Balearic Institute of Social Studies indicates a shift to the right in voter intentions.

The next regional elections will be on May 28, 2023, but were they to be held now, the poll suggests that the current government pact of PSOE, Més (Mallorca) and Podemos would see its combined number of seats in the Balearic parliament fall from 29 at present to 25. As it is, the left-wing pact did not gain a majority at the 2019 election but was supported by Més Minorca and Gent per Formentera, who have three seats between them. There are 59 seats in total and the majority is 30.

For individual parties, the poll points to PSOE getting 13 seats (19 in 2019), Més Mallorca four (the same as in 2019) and Podemos eight (up from six). Més Minorca are up one from two and Gent per Formentera stay on one. The combination is therefore 29.

The main opposition party, the Partido Popular, has 18 seats according to the poll, two more than in 2019. Vox rise from three to seven, while Ciudadanos slip from five to three and El Pi from three to two.

The move to the right is clear but it isn't decisive. A hypothetical coalition of the PP and Vox would give 25 seats. The Cs and El Pi would give 30, but El Pi in particular would be very reluctant to support any alliance involving Vox. It could actually be the case that El Pi, a regionalist party of the centre with some nationalist tendency, would support a left pact investiture. Their two seats would give 31.

The elections are obviously still some time off, but for PSOE in particular the poll is not promising. But nor is it that positive for the PP, whose leader, Marga Prohens, said last week that the aim is for the PP to govern on their own. In the past, the PP have had majorities, but since 2015 their representation has declined significantly.