When the pact was being formed in 2015. Francina Armengol with Alberto Jarabo (Podemos) and Biel Barceló (Més). | Pere Bota


An opinion poll by the Balearics Institute of Social Studies suggests that the next regional election, which will be in May 2019, could see the current administration struggle to retain a majority. Thirty seats are needed for a majority. The poll indicates that a best-case result would see PSOE, Més plus Podemos and the one deputy for Gent per Formentera get these thirty seats. However, an alternative case is that they would be two short.

This latest poll shows little change from one taken last summer. The main losers, according to the poll, would be Més and Podemos, while PSOE would hold firm with fourteen seats or possibly gain one. The principal winner would be Ciudadanos, who could gain five more seats than their current two. The Partido Popular, which lost fifteen seats at the 2015 election, would remain where they were with twenty seats or with one fewer.

El Pi, the poll suggests, could gain one seat. If so, it is conceivable that a coalition government of the right/centre-right (PP, C's, El Pi) could be formed. Another aspect of the poll, the approval ratings for party leaders/chief spokespeople, places the president of El Pi, Jaume Font, at the top of the list (5.3). Francina Armengol is just below with 5.2. The PP might be concerned by their president, Biel Company, only being rated 3.8. There is, however, higher recognition of Company (55%) than any other leader except Armengol. The lowest approval rating (2.4) is for Alberto Jarabo of Podemos.

The personal rating of the Balearic president is higher than that for the government's performance. This has been slipping and is now at 4.8. There is less support for this performance in Majorca than in the other islands.

* The poll results: PP 19-20 seats (20 in 2015); Ciudadanos six-seven seats (two in 2015); El Pi four seats (three in 2015); PSOE 14-15 seats (14 in 2015); Podemos seven seats (ten in 2015); Més six-seven seats (nine in 2015); Gent per Formentera one seat, as in 2015. There are 59 seats in all; majority is 30.