The president of the Chamber of Commerce, Antoni Mercant, points out that the war in Ukraine has distorted forecasts for inflation that had been based on the increase in fuel prices. Therefore, the upward trend "will continue until the end of the summer and may even last until the beginning of 2023".
Mercant explains that shipping companies serving the Balearics are, for the time being, assuming the increases in the cost of freight brought about by the rise in fuel prices so as not to pass them on to customers and suppliers. However, a stabilisation of the price of consumer goods will take longer than expected: "The war doesn't help at all, either in the short or medium term."
Antoni Riera, the technical director of the Fundación Impulsa, highlights the inflationary process caused by the increase in the cost of electricity and gas - an average increase of 40%. This will continue, and "a slowdown in prices that had been expected for June will, according to our forecasts, take longer". Riera can't offer an end point because the war has distorted everything, especially the impact on the shopping basket.
Alfonso Rodríguez of the Consubal consumers association in the Balearics says that the situation has worsened over the past two weeks. On top of the energy crisis, there is now the war. The loss of spending power has been accentuated, and Consubal's forecast, at present, is that it will be at least four months before the prices of basic necessities and consumer goods begin to stabilise. "The war has made the shopping basket alarmingly expensive."
Bartomeu Servera, the president of the distributors association in the Balearics, says that despite the war there are no product supply problems, except for some specific ones. These are due to technical issues with manufacturing where there is lack of raw material on the mainland. Distribution company warehouses are currently fully stocked up ahead of Easter and the summer tourism season.
However, he adds that the energy crisis and the war have caused a general rise in prices in all perishable and non-perishable goods. "Sooner or later, these will have to be passed on to hotels, bars, restaurants, supermarkets and shops on the islands."
Figures from the ANGED association of large retailers and the ASEDAS Spanish association of distributors compare food prices as they were in November last year with how they are at present. Typically, these indicate that, for example, a dozen eggs now cost 2.32 euros whereas they were 1.55 euros. Other examples: a litre of milk up from 0.82 euros to 1.22 euros; a litre of sunflower oil up from 1.90 euros to three euros; a kilogram of chicken up from 5.80 euros to eight euros.
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Whilst we may all suffer in some way or other due to the current broader situation, this current situation indirectly promotes the value of locally-produced produce...I for one hope that this promotes the value of locally-produced products and its value to the islands population as a response not only to the current situation but as a realisation of sustainability in its fullest form.