Flu in the Balearics typically comes later than on the mainland. Insularity plays its part, just as it did with the virus in the spring; the islands were far less affected.
The thinking with flu this winter is that health measures because of coronavirus may well mean fewer cases. This may prove to be the case, and the health service will be hoping that it is, as its principal concern will continue to be the virus, with the fear being not that of a second wave but a third wave.
The director of public health, Maria Antònia Font, says that the "second curve" is being bent. In other words, the second wave is receding. But she and Javier Arranz have both also spoken about a third wave. They are predicting nothing, but there is a clear enough implication that if there is a third wave, it will be linked to Christmas.
Mobility is a key reason why cases of flu in the Balearics increase in January. There is a relationship between people travelling back to the islands from the mainland after the festive season and the rise in the number of cases. As this is so with flu, then it could well be anticipated that the same thing will happen with coronavirus.
Contact tracing is designed to mitigate the spread, but there are the not the same safety measures for domestic travel as there are for foreign travel. Christmas is a time for much mobility. When might the fourth wave be? Easter?