25/09/2013 00:00
TW
0

by MONITOR
THE Sudanese government's recalcitrance over Darfur, hopefully but not certainly now modified to reluctant co-operation with the United Nations, contrasts with its theoretcial commitment to give full independence to the vast area known as South Sudan in 2011. This territory already has a considerable measure of self-government following understandings reached four years ago with Khartoum; the ruling party is the Sudan People's Liberation Movement (SPLM), founded by the charismatic John Garang whose influence is still strong despite the fact that he was killed in a helicopter crash in 2005.

South Sudan is largely Christian and animist, in contrast to the Muslim north. Its natural lines of communication are to neighbouring Uganda and Kenya to the south and east, rather than to Khartoum in the north. Much of its trade is with Uganda, linking with the east-African networks and access to the Indian Ocean at Mombasa. Between its present status and anticipated sovereign statehood in 2011 loom Sudanese national elections due to be held in 2009. The SPLM will contest these and conceivably could win for itself a substantial national representation but its preference is likely to be for a return of a stable government in Khartoum which will honour the commitment to South Sudan's independence. There will be difficulties along the way over oil revenues, the sharing of Nile waters and the considerable economic presence of China; but thus far the hope is that Africa will have an important new nation in 2011.