26/09/2013 00:00
TW
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by MONITOR
INTERPRETING the results of opinion polls can be a full time job and it is by no means certain that the effort spent is commensature with the value of the result. How, for instance, to work out what it means that although 59 per cent of those questioned “like” the Liberal Democrats only 39 per cent of them are favourably impressed by the leader of the party, Nick Clegg. Surely your opinion of a party must be affected by your feelings about its leader? There is more consistency in attitudes towards the Conservatives whose leader is liked by 88 per cent of his party. Even Gordon Brown retains the affection of 62 per cent of Labour voters.

More conventionally the latest ICM/Guardian poll shows the Conservatives with 43 per cent support in the event of an election being held tomorrow while Labour commands only 26 per cent and the LibDems 19 per cent. There is little difference in these figures with those of one month ago although the margin between the two main parties has moved slightly in favour of the Conservatives to make it the second widest since ICM started polling in 1984. It is doubtful that the party conferences will make any substantial difference; indeed, barring exceptional events, voting intentions are unlikely to change significantly until the finishing post is in sight next May or June.