The Gorg Blau reservoir when running dry. | Miquel A. Cañellas


A working group for adaptation to climate change has been supported by the Spanish office for climate change and the national environment ministry's foundation for biodiversity. It has created an interactive viewfinder to allow users to consider different climate change scenarios and their impact on regions of Spain. As well as the effect on whole regions and municipalities, attention is paid to specific areas, such as farming and protected natural zones.

Numerous variables are taken into account, for instance maximum and minimum temperatures; the number of hot days and nights; rainfall; the number of days without rain. These are by year and by season. The scenarios go up to 2100 and draw on data going back to the 1950s.

There are two main scenarios, one which is moderate and the other extreme. They factor in global ability to reduce contaminating emissions. In the case of the Balearics, the moderate scenario reveals that in 2006 the maximum average temperature was 20.56C. In 2018, this is 20.74C. By 2050 it will be 21.18C and in 2100 it will climb to 22.01C.

The extreme scenario suggests that the temperature in 2050 will be 21.98C and in 2100 it will rise to 24.07C. An increase of around three and a half degrees would have serious environmental implications.

For rainfall, there were 67 days in 2006, and 65.3 are predicted for this year. The moderate scenario points to an increase to 72.2 by 2050 and then a fall to 61 by 2100. The extreme scenario predicts 64.4 days for 2050 and 50.4 days in 2100. The worst case is therefore a loss of fifteen days rain between now and the end of the century.

Where hot days are concerned - defined as being above the average maximum temperature - the extreme scenario gives 103.6 days by 2100. In 2006 there were 47.9 days, and 49.8 days are forecast for 2018. The moderate scenario suggests 70.9 days by 2100.