According to Oxfam, the coronavirus pandemic could increase the number of people living in poverty in Spain by 700,000 to 10.8 million.
A report entitled "A just and necessary reconstruction is possible" predicts that 23.1% of the population will be in poverty, although the fall in GDP will mean that the poverty threshold decreases. If this threshold were to remain unaltered, 26% of the population could be classified as being in poverty.
Oxfam points to regional variations, with the most significant increase in poverty - 11.7% - being in the Balearics. Castile and León (11%), Aragon (9.7%) and Catalonia (9.4%) follow the Balearics in having the highest predicted increases. In absolute terms, Andalusia could have 200,000 more people in poverty.
The impact of the fall in GDP on net disposable income will be most pronounced in Andalusia, the Canaries and Extremadura. This would result in a rise of 1.7% in terms of net income inequality, the report saying that this would mean "throwing four consecutive years of slight reduction in inequality overboard".
There is also a warning of an employment crisis, Oxfam noting that over one period of 22 days, 900,000 dropped out of social security because of the paralysis of activity. There are particular repercussions for the hospitality industry, where 73% of people are in low-income groups.