Meteorologists and their models, where would be without them? Some prove to be correct, others not, but we are becoming accustomed to predictions of summers being hotter than normal, even if this means only slight upward variations in the average temperature.
Modelling is currently focused on El Niño, the phenomenon that occurs in the Pacific but which has an impact all over the planet. This is because the Pacific water temperature is higher than usual. La Niña is when the Pacific is cooler than usual, and La Niña has just ended, which sounds a bit scary given that last summer was so hot.
There again, it does all rather depend. The deputy spokesperson for the Aemet met agency in the Balearics, Bernat Amengual, points out that the summer of 2022 was particularly anomalous - two degrees hotter than usual. And this was despite La Niña. All sorts of records were broken in Mallorca and the Balearics - the number and length of heatwaves, minimum and maximum temperatures; Formentera and Montuiri now share the all-time record high, one of 44.5C. The previous record, 44.2C in Muro, had stood since 1994.
It isn't absolutely certain that El Niño will occur, but models put the likelihood of it occurring from June to August at between 55% and 66%. So, assuming that it does occur, is Mallorca in for a summer even more roasting than 2022? Amengual doesn't believe that this will necessarily be the case, with an anomaly (higher than normal) of between 0.5C and 1C expected this summer.
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