There have been warnings about next year's tourism for several weeks. | Pilar Pellicer

There is general agreement in the tourism sector that the economic situation in Mallorca's two main markets - Germany and the UK - will have a negative impact over the first half of 2023 and affect next year's summer season.

Economist Chris Williamson of S&P Global says that the UK's economic difficulties have worsened this month. A drop in commercial activity indicates that the economy is "probably in recession". Antoni Riera, technical director of the Fundació Impulsa for Balearic competitiveness and productivity, who spoke at a conference in London on Monday, observes that tourism is "exposed to exogenous and intangible factors" that affect performance. "The sharp drop in the pound due to the delicate situation of the British economy and the first signs that Germany is headed for recession are not good news."

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He adds that "the slowdown in the German and British economies is not at all reassuring for the Balearics, since these two markets are vital for the entire tourism industry". "This situation will encourage people to choose to stay at home and prioritise other types of things because of the loss of purchasing power due to inflation and the rise in energy and raw material prices." Riera says that "a lag of up to ten months is needed, but all the symptoms of recession are more than evident in Germany and the UK and this, like it or not, will affect the tourism sector". Easter next year, he believes, is when "these indicators" will be recognisable and point to how they will affect the summer.

The director of the Spanish Tourism Office in Berlin, Alvaro Blanco, says that there will be a "generalised degree of uncertainty" in Germany next year that will affect the tourism industry. The German Institute for Economic Research has this week given a warning of recession, Blanco adding that "we will have to wait to see how the German market reacts to the deterioration of the economy due to the increase in energy costs".

Manuel Butler, a former director of Spain's Turespaña agency and now Blanco's counterpart in London, says that the evolution of economic indicators in both countries will be decisive. Hoteliers and other tourist accommodation providers in the Balearics "will have to act to seek alternative markets and mitigate the possible falls that may occur in both German and British tourism".