Spain will overtake France in terms of foreign tourist arrivals in 2040

Mallorca will see fewer visitors

While tourism figures will boom in Spain, the Balearics may see them drop off over the coming years | Photo: Majorca Daily Bulletin reporter

Humphrey CarterPalma21/10/2024 12:28

Spain will receive 115 million foreign tourists annually around 2040 and will be at the top of the podium in terms of incoming travellers by overtaking France, after growing steadily in the coming years, according to forecasts by the consultancy firm Braintrust. The consultancy firm’s tourism barometer has highlighted that this year Spain will exceed 91 million foreign travellers, with spending of around 125,000 million euros, which will mean new record figures; and has added that these increases will continue in the coming decades.

According to the report, the international context, the evolution of the economy and the actions taken by the different destinations may influence the continued surpassing of historical records, not only in terms of tourist numbers but also in terms of spending. In addition to the forecast given for 2040, estimates suggest that, in 2025, a total of 93 million foreign travellers will visit Spain, by 2030 the figure will reach 100 million and in 2035 107 million.

Over time, a diversification of Spanish destinations will be observed, as the six communities that receive 90% of travellers (Andalusia, the Balearics, the Canary Islands, Catalonia, the Valencian Community and Madrid) will see their share reduced in favour of others with less current weight. In the forecasts for the coming years, regions such as Galicia, Asturias, the Basque Country, Navarre, Castile and Leon, Castile-La Mancha and Extremadura will gain visitors attracted by their tourism proposals, “far from the traditional sun and beach”, according to Braintrust.

With all of the above, the consultancy firm points out that the average daily expenditure of visitors will double in 2030 with respect to 2017, with an approximate figure of 280 euros per day; in addition to which it could rise to 340 euros per day between 2035 and 2040, double that of 2022. The weight of tourism in national GDP is expected to exceed 15% in the coming decades, a figure that is already being reached in some regions, such as the Balearic and Canary Islands.